Introduction
The Labor Party and the Conservative Party are the two largest and most competitive parties in the UK. The political direction remains unchanged, but historical circumstances have a significant impact and shape the parties’ ideas and new goals (Hayton, 2021). Likewise, the public’s opinion of the parties may be shaped by the impact of Covid 19 and the parties’ response to it, or by the Brexit and how the parties cope with the new circumstances (Leonard, 2020). A party’s priorities have a significant impact on the future of the country that voted for it. Response to climate change, voter support, ability to adapt to new challenges and distrust of the Conservative Party are the main factors increasing the probability of Labor coming to power.
Discussion
Distrust and disillusionment with the Conservative Party adds supporters to the Labour group and could lead to the election of Labor. Brexit has divided society, and covid has brought about a decline in health and could have caused an economic crisis. Economic policy is also an important factor influencing popularity among voters. The Conservative Party has been quite successful in reducing taxes and supporting the business environment but after Liz Truss came to power, the economic decline occurred, and under a different leader it continues to this day (UK Election Polls 2023 | Statista, 2023). Thus, disillusionment with the Conservative Party may lead to the election of the Labour Party.
The expectations and needs of voters may vary over time, but the task of good politicians is to adapt to changes and meet newly emerging needs. The main ideas of the Labor Party are social issues, jobs, and decent wages. However, according to Belchior et al. (2023), this party is more flexible and adaptive and more likely to respond to people’s needs than the Conservatives. Due to this, it may have the support of more voters, which will lead to its coming to power. This is an important factor because voters feel that the party takes responsibility for specific issues and subsequently solves them. This leads to trust and gratitude from citizens when issues are resolved. In addition, static goals and directions of the party can lead to the loss of voters because new events and changes are happening every day and new solutions need to be found. An adaptive response to economic, social, and other challenges is more effective than following an outdated plan without attention to the current situation. Therefore, paying attention to and addressing people’s actual needs is an important factor that can lead to an increase in the number of voters for the Labour Party.
Climate change is a pressing issue today, and the Labor Party has been looking for solutions and implementing ideas for a long time. Back in 1997, the Labor Party adopted a policy to reduce CO2 emissions (Carter, 2020). They were the first and most involved from the very beginning of climate mitigation and are still at the forefront of the UK’s fight against climate change. This factor is important for voters because the problem is still relevant to society today. Labour group has allocated significant subsidies, set ambitious goals, and is still trying to achieve them.
Voter support is how a party’s success in elections is measured. According to the latest polling data, 42% of the population supports the Labor Party, while only 26% support their rivals (UK Election Polls 2023 | Statista, 2023). Of course, the changes in the chart can change at any time because many factors influence voter opinion, but regular polling shows a correlation between public opinion and events over time. We saw a sharp decline in the Conservative choice in September 2022 when Liz Truss came to power, and today Labor is still in first place in public opinion. The economic situation in the country was bad and the new leader Sunak may not be able to restore confidence in the Conservatives before the next hypothetical election.
Conclusion
The success of any party, as well as the choice of society, is influenced by many factors, and predicting the exact result of the election is a difficult task. Some of the factors are difficult to research and have not been considered but the factors taken into account lead to greater trust in the Labor Party. Polls show that Labor and Conservative voters have a difference of almost 20% in favor of Labour. Another factor is the adaptability of the Labor Party to the needs of society. The flexibility of politicians in the development of new projects and goals is an advantage and this feature is present in the Labor party, in contrast to the stable and pre-planned Conservatives. Labor is also leading the fight against climate change, which is important to many voters. It was the party that immediately took the problem seriously and invested the most in solving it. Brexit and the covid crisis led to the division of society and the decline of the economy of Great Britain, which caused distrust in the Conservatives and, accordingly, the choice of Labor.
References
Belchior, A. M., Lopes, H. F., Cabrita, L., & Tsatsanis, E. (2023). Party policy responsiveness at the agenda-setting and decision-making stages: The mediating effect of the types of government and promise. International Political Science Review, 019251212311551. Web.
Carter, N., & Little, C. (2020). Party competition on climate policy: The roles of interest groups, ideology and challenger parties in the UK and Ireland. International Political Science Review, 42(1), 16–32. Web.
Hayton, R. (2021). Brexit and party change: The Conservatives and Labour at Westminster. International Political Science Review, 43(3), 345–358. Web.
Mellon, J. (2021). Tactical Voting and Electoral Pacts in the 2019 UK General Election. Political Studies Review, 20(3), 504–516. Web.
Leonard, M. (2020). The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics. European Council on Foreign Relations. Web.
UK election polls 2023 | Statista. (2023). Statista. Web.